20, "2012 Annual Meeting of Chinese rubber-cum-Chinese Rubber Industry Exhibition opened in Qingdao, Shandong Province. China Rubber Industry Association predicts that this year, China's rubber consumption will reach 7.4 million tons, an increase of 7.25%, which consumes 3.4 million tons of natural rubber, synthetic rubber, four million tons. The next period of time, the natural rubber market is tight, the equilibrium remains the same, synthetic rubber gap is still too large. Investor Futures Research Institute Xu Mou said, according to market rumors, related to purchasing and storage of Thailand in March, there are, after another trace, but the actual market price of purchasing and storage, not on the market the actual impact. In this regard, the general manager of the Jinyou futures business department in Jinjiang Xu Rongbin analysis indicated that the purchasing and storage plans in Thailand, just play the role of market speculation theme, rubber prices have short-term boost, but can not change the rubber Prices run trend. "A real change in trend from the supply and demand point of view to judge," said Xu Rongbin. Reduced seasonal availability of supply to resume in May In this regard, Xu seek to agree. Rubber supply pattern from the point of view, but also has a strong seasonal pattern. According to reports, the natural rubber producing areas are mainly concentrated in Hainan and Yunnan provinces. Under normal circumstances, the of Hainan tapping season, from March 25 to December 25, Yunnan Province from April to November 25 May.
Generally open cut a large number of listed. 2-April 5-supply off-season is to supply the peak season in August. Open cut of the season and the supply of high season, rubber prices fell in the period to stop cutting and supply off-season, the rubber prices rose. "Generally cut open a month later to a large number of listed, May-August supply peak season, 2-April is the supply of off-season." Said Xu seek in the open cut of the season and the supply of high season, the rubber prices fell, stop cutting period and supply of off-season, the rubber prices rise. Seen in this light, the world's natural rubber production, the seasonal reduction factors still exist, is expected to supply earliest to May in order to restore. Xu Rongbin rubber each year the seasonal window of two important multi-empty, one in April and the second is July. "Because by the end of March early April is the cut of the season of new plastic and rubber prices easily fell in April, our statistics showed that only 30% the Hujiao in April rose probability." Said Xu Rongbin, June and July is the peak season for production plastic usually around July, will experience a seasonal dip. August and September, typhoons or tropical storms, persistent rain, drought, frost, will reduce the output of natural rubber, leaving the rubber prices rose. Therefore, although the price of natural rubber may be synthetic rubber to weaken, as well as downstream demand is low and confined, but in September will be the support of the rainfall, typhoons and other seasonal factors, the downside is limited.
According to analysis, in November, reduced the probability of disaster weather, natural rubber production is normal. December, the domestic producing areas tapping gradually stop. Downstream manufacturers need to replenish stocks, stop cutting during the production needs to meet, the therefore Hujiao will usher in two to three months of bottoming rally. Suggestions: rubber enterprises do not have to rush to the spot purchases In addition, Xu seek February, Qingdao Bonded Stocks of natural rubber showed a slight downward trend. Qingdao Bonded rubber and adhesive inventory at 204,300 tons, has been the peak of 219,500 tons in January decreased by 15.2 thousand tons. Qingdao Bonded rubber stock continued to decline, but the slower the digestion rate of the overall inventory, from the side also reflects the weak demand of the tire industry. The fundamentals of a combination of rubber judgment, Xu Rongbin rubber main contract 1205 in the 31550 points is a strong pressure-bit integer points 30000 times. In this regard, Xu seek recommendations: do not have to rush to the spot with plastic business procurement. Jiaojia callback using the futures market, buying futures contracts to create a virtual inventory; stock enterprises, it should be every rebound sold at a high hedge. Xurong Bin also said that the supply of rubber, the late ones, Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory is too high; spot purchases with plastic enterprises may be considered in April and May; stock enterprises, will have to temper short-selling; companies with high inventory, try to hedge short and reduce losses.
It's written by GoodLandShoes date 3.27.2012
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